NFL Referee Assignments Week 14 & Their Impact on NFL Betting
We tend to only focus on NFL referees after a controversial decision or bad no-call. Yet each head NFL referee and his respective crew interprets the game differently.
Gaining insight into the way a game will be officiated can have immense value in the betting market.
A referee who calls more penalties for defensive holding and roughing the passer has a far different impact on game flow than a ref who focuses more on offensive holding and false starts.
Referee style one week may hide a team’s weakness (defensive backs), but a different official who leans heavily on calling pass interference will compound that weakness the next week.
Same team. Different outcomes.
Throughout this 2023 NFL season, we’ll help to identify important trends and tendencies by different NFL referees to help you gain an edge when placing a bet .
NFL Referee Assignments for Week 14
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We will update this article every week of the 2023 NFL season, highlighting at least three games where referee and penalty trends may have an impact on the betting market.
Smart to bookmark it and check back regularly each week.
Brad Rogers’ Impact on Seahawks at 49ers
The 49ers host the Seahawks on Sunday, the second meeting between the divisional rivals in three weeks.
Let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Brad Rogers will potentially impact this game.
- The Seattle Seahawks are the number one penalized team in the NFL as we head into Week 14 of the season. This was an issue with the Seahawks last year, and there has been no improvement in 2023. Over the past four weeks, the Seahawks are averaging almost nine penalties per game
- Conversely, the 49ers are averaging just over five penalties per game in that same span
- The Seahawks defense ranks second overall in the NFL at conceding automatic first downs via penalty on key third down plays
- Pre-snap penalties are to be avoided at all costs. The Seahawks rank fifth overall in pre-snap penalties per game. The big contributors are false start penalties. Compounding that is the fact that 67% of their false start infractions have occurred in road games
- Brad Rogers leads all referees in calling offensive holding and offensive pass interference infractions
- Rogers’ crew is right around the NFL average for calling defensive pass interference infractions. What’s noteworthy is 75% of these calls have been assessed on the road team
- The Seahawks defense ranks third for defensive pass interference penalties per game. Their home versus road splits are an issue, with 80% of these infractions occurring in road games
- Brad Rogers ranks third in roughing the passer penalties per game
- The Seahawks are among a group of four teams co-ranked number one for roughing the passer penalties
The Bottom Line:
- Brad Rogers is 17-8 Over (68%) in divisional games in his career. It must be noted Rogers is currently 3-3 on totals in six divisional games officiated in 2023
- Home teams have performed at an above-average rate with Brad Rogers in 2023. Through 12 games home teams are 8-4 ATS
- In divisional games officiated by Brad Rogers, home teams are 14-11 ATS (56%) in his career, including 4-2 ATS in the 2023 season
- The 49ers have a limited but successful record with Brad Rogers. The 49ers are 4-1 on the moneyline and 2-3 ATS in five games. The 49ers’ one loss was at the Saints in 2020 as 9-point underdogs with Nick Mullens at QB
- When playing at home, San Francisco is 2-0 on the moneyline and ATS with Brad Rogers. That includes a 27-7 win vs Seattle in Week 2 of the 2022 season as a 9-point favorite. The Seahawks were penalized 10 times that day compared to just one for San Francisco.
The over record with Brad Rogers officiating in divisional games is worth noting here.
Seattle went toe to toe with Dallas last week but was undisciplined throughout the game and came up short in key moments on both sides of the ball.
The 49ers come off a statement win in Week 13, but with work to do to secure the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC, there is no time for a letdown in this spot.
The 49ers are the more talented and significantly more disciplined team here. The assignment of Brad Rogers compounds issues for the Seahawks in some key areas of concern.
This is a big number for San Francisco, but we’ve seen these teams play multiple times over the past two seasons. It’s a mismatch in favor of the 49ers.
The 49ers have performed well with Rogers officiating, and the penalty metrics all tilt in their favor. Look for another 30-plus point scoring output for the home team and a San Francisco series sweep in a 34-20 type contest.
Essentially, nothing changes in this NFC West divisional matchup on Sunday, making the 49ers -10.5 points the play in this game.
» Bet the 49ers vs. Seahawks Now
Carl Cheffers’ Impact on Bills at Chiefs
The Bills return to Arrowhead Stadium for the fourth consecutive season on Sunday. It’s a de-facto playoff game for both teams, with the Chiefs vying for the No. 1 overall seed and the Bills in a do-or-die situation.
Let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of Carl Cheffers will potentially impact this game.
- The Chiefs are the No. 1 penalized team for offensive holding penalties per game after 13 weeks of the season
- The Bills defense is a top-five unit at generating offensive holding penalties when playing at home. They’ve yet to bring that same intensity on the road, where they rank 31st in the NFL. No team has a bigger home versus road split in this area
- The Bills offensive line has been a strength of the team this season. From a penalty perspective, they have been better on the road than at home in 2023
- Carl Cheffers’ crew is calling an above-average 58% of their overall penalties on the offense in 2023. While some crews focus more on penalties around the line of scrimmage, this group is an equal-opportunity enforcer of offensive infractions. Both wide receivers and tight ends are penalized at an above-average rate in 2023 with Cheffers’ crew
- Through 13 weeks of the season, 52% of the Bills penalties have been committed by their offense compared to 61% on the Chiefs offense
- Carl Cheffers ranks second in the NFL for offensive pass interference penalties per game in 2023
- Cheffers’ crew is calling slightly above the league average for defensive pass interference penalties, with 80% being assessed on the road team. Neither the Bills nor Chiefs offenses rank as a top ten beneficiary of this penalty in 2023
- Carl Cheffers is public enemy number one for Chiefs fans. Much of the angst stems from the team’s loss in Super Bowl LV to Tampa Bay, where a lopsided penalty count was a postgame talking point in their 31-9 defeat that night
- Putting emotion aside, the reality is the Chiefs have performed very well with Carl Cheffers in the Patrick Mahomes era. Kansas City is 9-2 including a victory vs. Philadelphia in Super Bowl LVII in which a penalty essentially sealed the game for the Chiefs with one minute left on the clock
- The Chiefs are just 5-6 ATS in those 11 games with Cheffers. In six of those games, they were favorites of a TD or more
- Cheffers officiated the Bills at Chiefs Week 5, 2021 matchup, a 38-20 Buffalo victory. The Chiefs were a 2.5-point favorite that night. Don’t confuse that scoreline with a lopsided penalty count against the Chiefs. The Bills were the more penalized team that night. A -4 turnover margin doomed Kansas City in the game
- The Bills are 6-3 on the moneyline and 5-4 ATS with Carl Cheffers in the Josh Allen era, the most recent a 22-16 loss at the Jets in Week 1 of the 2023 season
This game was included in our weekly preview because it’s not only the game of the week but also one of the most important games of the entire NFL season.
The outcome of this matchup will have ramifications across the NFL landscape.
A Chiefs victory keeps them in the mix for the all-important No. 1 overall seed in the AFC. A loss most likely has them on the road at some point in the playoffs, unfamiliar territory for this team in the Mahomes era.
The season is on the line here for Buffalo. It’s a circle the wagons moment for the Bills. While this team is flawed, there is no doubt they have enough talent to make a run. It’s a group that nobody in the AFC, aside from Buffalo fans, wants to see in the playoffs.
Cheffers has generally avoided any significant controversy in 2023. That may well change here in Week 14.
Looking at this from a betting perspective, home teams have an above-average win percentage with Carl Cheffers dating back many years.
This is a coin toss game. In all honesty, in-game betting would be the optimal way to approach wagering on this contest. Whichever team is getting more than a field goal would be a worthwhile investment as this will be a classic 27-24 type affair.
Pre flop though, given the data at our disposal, we have to go with Mahomes at home here at such a short price.
In what will be one of the games of the season, the Kansas City Chiefs -1.5 points is the play in this game.
» Bet the Chiefs vs. Bills Now
John Hussey’s Impact on Eagles at Cowboys
The Eagles meet the Cowboys for the second time in 2023 on SNF in Week 14, with the NFC East up for grabs.
Let’s assess the strengths and weaknesses of both teams from a penalty perspective and how the officiating of John Hussey will potentially impact this game.
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NFL Week 14 Referee Assignments + Betting Stats & Trends
We are onto NFL Week 14 and getting ever so close to the NFL Playoffs. It is the last bye week and we are ready for the final stretch of the season. A few NFL referees are standing out as betting stats and trends go so I have to pick and choose our spots. Let’s dive into the NFL Week 14 Referee Assignment/Report and betting stats and trends.
2021-2022 NFL Referee Stats
2022-2023 NFL Referee Betting Stats and Trends
Brad Rogers starts NFL Week 14 assigned to the Thursday Night Football game. Rogers has been a profitable referee to the Over. In fact, last season, Rogers was 10-6 to the Over with a combined average final score of 50.8. That trend has continued this season with a record of 7-4 to the Over with a slightly lower combined average final score of 43.5. Despite the quarterback and skill position players, the Rams are missing they managed to score 23 last week against the Seahawks.
Referee Likes: Raiders/Rams Over 42
Home teams are thriving in games officiated over the last two seasons and that comes as no surprise. I have been highlighting Martin also every week and I am going to back mention his betting trend and stats again. This season, home teams are 9-3 straight up and 7-5 against the spread. Furthermore, last season, home teams were 10-5 straight up. The NFL Week 14 Referee Assignment draws Martin to officiate the AFC South matchup between the Jaguars and the Titans. Additionally, the Titans have won nine out of the last 10 matchups against the Jaguars and the Titans have won by four or more points in seven out of the last 10 games.
Referee Likes: Titans ML & -4
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Unders have been cashing at a high rate this season. Craig Wrolstad has been no stranger to this trend. Thus far this season, the Under is 7-4 (63.6%) averaging a total of 41 points per game. The NFL Week 14 Referee Assignment draws Wrolstad and his crew to officiate the AFC West matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos. The Broncos are a dead nut Under team this season. They are 11-1 to the Under thus far. Additionally, division games are 77-40-4 (65.3%) to the Under this season!
Referee Likes: Chiefs & Broncos Under 44
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